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For the first time in over 20 years, three drivers will fight it out
for motorsport’s ultimate prize at the final round of the season this
weekend. Lewis Hamilton is clear favourite, thanks to a four-point lead
over McLaren team mate Fernando Alonso, but the odds rarely tell the
whole story.

After one of the most troubled title defences in
living memory, Alonso will not give in without a struggle; and then
there is Kimi Raikkonen, waiting to pounce, Ferrari very much at the
top of their game. But who will win? And why? We examine the factors to
be considered…
Lewis Hamilton

Why he’ll win…
He’s ahead: despite his
error at the Shanghai pit entrance, consistency has been key to
Hamilton’s campaign and his lead means he needs the fewest points from
Brazil to take the crown. If he can finish immediately behind Alonso -
even if the Ferraris are ahead - he will be champion.

Pressure:
in many ways he’s not really under any - if he wins he’s the first
rookie champion; if he loses he’s still had the greatest rookie season
in Formula One history - and, be it Alonso or Raikkonen, he will have
lost to one of the most highly-rated drivers of the modern era.

Team spirit:
while no one - even Alonso - doubts McLaren will continue to treat
their drivers equally in terms of equipment and strategy, Hamilton
knows that most in the organisation would almost certainly prefer to
see him to win the title - a pretty substantial weapon to have in your
armoury, especially when your main rival is also your team mate!

Why he won’t win…
Inexperience:
Alonso has won two world championships, Raikkonen has come close to
winning two. For Hamilton, it’s virgin territory. Yes, he’s taken
titles before, but never under the intense pressure and media scrutiny
that accompanies Formula One. Indeed, could his China gaffe be the
first sign that he is starting to crack? On top of that he has never
raced at Interlagos.

Pressure: in other ways, he is under
intense pressure - pressure that has intensified immensely since his
error in China. It is coming at him from all quarters, either directly
or indirectly - from his rivals; his team; the media; himself; and,
arguably most of all, from genuine Formula One fans around the world
who, after a season seemingly dominated by off-track politicking,
desperately want to see the Hamilton fairytale come true.

Fernando Alonso

Why he’ll win…
When the going gets tough:
the media may have over-egged the situation, but there is no denying
that Alonso is a pretty isolated figure at McLaren, and few in the
paddock expect him to continue with the team next season. You might
think such a situation would de-motivate a driver, but in Alonso’s case
he almost seems to thrive on it. This time last year he was complaining
that Renault were not giving him adequate support in his championship
battle with Michael Schumacher, claiming he often felt ‘alone’ within
the team. It didn’t stop him putting in devastating drives when they
were most needed - notably his victory in Japan, which all but secured
his second drivers’ title.

Risky business: if Alonso
really is convinced that McLaren are on Hamilton’s side he may decide
he has nothing to lose in being ultra aggressive, both on the track in
his driving, and off it with the mind games that inevitably accompany a
title decider. If he can get under Hamilton’s skin and convince his
team mate that he cannot afford to play things conservatively - which
in reality he can to a degree - then he knows he is more likely to
force him into another rookie error. In this respect, Alonso’s
isolation within the team is almost an asset - it means he will remain
an unknown quantity to Hamilton, who can never be sure quite what the
double champion has hidden up his sleeve.

Why he won’t win…
He’s not leading:
Alonso has never come from behind to win a championship. In 2005 he had
a healthy margin over Raikkonen throughout the year and wrapped up the
title with two rounds to spare. Things were closer last year - he was
level with Michael Schumacher heading to the penultimate race - but he
never actually dropped behind the German.

He’s already lost:
as McLaren have discovered, Alonso is a hard man to read. If he
genuinely believes that Hamilton is destined for the title, could it be
that he has already given up hope? Numerous comments attributed to the
Spaniard in the press suggest he believes the title has already been
decided off the track. The sign of a beaten man? Or perhaps just one
trying to out-psyche his team mate?

Kimi Raikkonen

He’s too far behind: he
trails Hamilton by seven points and Alonso by three, which means not
only does Raikkonen almost certainly need to win in Brazil - ideally
with Massa second - he also needs some serious misfortune to come his
rivals’ way. Even if he leads home a Ferrari one-two, with Alonso
finishing third, Raikkonen would need Hamilton to come home no higher
than sixth to steal the title.